Can you forecast how many tonnes of cherries will come from your orchard, or how many kilograms per tree might be harvested from a block?
Yields vary from year to year. How much they vary depends on the characteristics of the variety or cultivar, for example, whether they are self-fertile or not, or how much chill they require to set a crop. Then we have to add factors such as conditions during pollination, and so on.
Records
Do you have a history of production for each block to assist in knowing the potential for this year; or know how many trees of a variety is in a block?
What is the average number of kilograms harvested per tree at a certain age, and is it likely to increase (increased fruit bud potential) or stay about the same?
Records of harvested cherries can readily be collected from picker tallies, or as they come into the packing shed in buckets, crates or half bins.
The number of cherry blossoms at full bloom in comparison to the number of fruit harvested will give the percentage of fruit set.
Self–fertile cultivars are likely to have a greater percentage of fruit set over say, a ten year period, than non self–fertile varieties if subject to a lack of chilling or poor weather during pollination.
While keeping records might be considered an exercise in history, working out if a crop appears to be greater than last season can be useful when it comes to ordering cartons; booking harvest labour; and organising ladders, picking containers and supervisory labour.
No one knows your cherry block like you do, however, attempts to forecast a crop too early—before shedding—is likely to end in disappointment.
US growers use crop forecasting
The cherry industry in the USA produces figures on the coming crop so they can prepare for the season. They use the information to order sea and air freight, assess market destinations, book advertising space and more.
Aussie growers should be proactive in collecting statistics
In Australia we know how many tonnes of cherries are harvested each year—we find that out about two months after the season has finished. The figures are based on the cherry levy.
Maybe it is time that our industry became proactive in gathering the statistics required to benefit the industry, growers and marketers. What do you think?
For more information, see Tree Fruit August 2015
